The Sorcery: Contested Realm Kickstarter campaign is a record-setting success.
A hot topic of discussion is what are the most rare collectibles in Sorcery, and how much product might be required to achieve collection goals. The intent of this page is to help provide some of those answers.
The page is organized to rank collectible products by order of rarity, while attempting to minimize speculation and documenting all assumptions.
Article updated 15 May 2022 with the announcement of the Alpha print run at 29,000 boxes.
1 - Uncut Foil Print Sheets: Ordinary, Exceptional, Elite, Unique (Population: 4)
Uncut foil sheets are a premium collectible reserved exclusively for the 4 backers in the 'Avatar of the Realm' Tier.
One Foil Print sheet will be issued for each rarity level, leaving only 4 total copies in the world.
The foils themselves within the set list are a coveted collectible item, with a foil card on the facing side and full art on the back.
These Foil Print sheets will make for an amazing display piece for high end collectors.
2 - Artist Proof Full Set (Population: 4)
Artists proofs are commonly issued to TCG artists. They include the face side of the card with a blank back. Artists often sell them with signature, and sometimes offer commission services with a sketch or painting on the back.
While it is non-traditional to list a full set as a collectible option in a rarity list, it is included here since it is offered in the 'Avatar of the Realm' pledge Tier.
It is exceptionally difficult (if not impossible) to acquire an entire set of artist proofs since it would require direct coordination with all 35 of the Sorcery and the Frazetta Estate for the Frank Frazetta cards.
In addition to being exceptionally limited (estimated to be 25-50 per card), some artists are difficult to reach, some will not sell at all, and there is a passionate niche market that will likely scoop these up quickly.
3 - Uncut Non-Foil Print Sheets: Ordinary, Exceptional, Elite, Unique (Population: 24)
There are 24 'Collector' pledge Tier bundles. Each will include 4 Non-Foil Print Sheets; one for each rarity level.
4 - Artist Proof Singles (Population: 25-50)
Artist Proofs are estimated to be limited to 25-50 per card in the set. Traditionally Magic the Gathering has issued 50 copies to artists, but it has been stated that Sorcery might be limited to 25.
In any case, these are very limited, and require communication directly with the artist to acquire.
5 - Relentless Crowd Promo (Population: 100)
The Relentless Crowd promo card includes Ian Miller artwork and is limited to 100 total copies.
These have been issued through various promotional events that pre-dated the Kickstarter campaign.
Given the large success of the Kickstarter Campaign, it is assumed here that there will be more than 100 Uniques and Curios in alpha circulation.
6 - Curio Cards (Population: Unknown)
Curio Cards were unlocked at the $1M stretch goal level. The campaign described them as "very rare Mystery cards showcasing the history of Sorcery's creation".
Teaser images imply that these are sketch/process artwork cards and/or perhaps alternate art variants of cards that were re-imagined.
The print size and pull rate of these is unknown, but they are rumored to be extremely rare. It is possible that they may rank as more rare or less rare than the Relentless Crows Promo.
7 - Sample Packs (Population: 244)
A net total of 244 sealed sample packs are included across pledge Tier levels.
12 Sample Packs are included in each of the 4 the Avatar of the Realm Tiers.
4 Sample Packs are included in each of the 24 Collector Tiers.
1 Sample Pack was included in each of the 100 Sorcerer Early Bird Tiers.
The 244 packs excludes any sample packs that may have been kept by the company and/or issued to content creators. In any case, however, it is reasonable to assume that all (or most) have those have been opened.
8 - LGS Exclusive Prize Cards (Population: 24 x # of 'Innkeeper' Pledges)
The precise population for LGS Exclusive Prize Cards will be unknown until the Kickstarter Campaign concludes and total purchase numbers are known.
As of this writing, there are 77 store backers and therefore >1,800 copies expected.
9 - Pledge Pack (Population: (Avatar Tier 4 x 4) + (Innkeeper Tier 134 x 12) + (Total # of Pledges - 4 from Avatar Tier - 134 from Innkeeper Tier) = 7,942)
Every pledge will receive a Pledge Pack. However, the 4 Avatar Tier pledges will receive 4 total Pledge Packs.
Additionally, during the Kickstarter campaign it was announced that Innkeeper pledges will receive 12 packs. There were 134 Inkeeper backers.
The Kickstarter campaign ended with 6,456 backers.
(4 x 4) + (134 x 12) + (6,456 - 4 - 134) = 16 + 1,608 + 6,318 = 7,942 Pledge Packs
10 - Elemental Avatar Cards (Population: [# of Elementalist Pledges x 4] + [4 x (# of Innkeeper Pledges x 4)] +[4 x 4 Avatar Pledges] =
Elemental Avatars are assumed to be exclusive to Precon Decks, so the Elemental Avatar cards will be more rare than many are estimating; especially on an individual elemental card basis since there are 4 elemental avatars (Earth, Wind, Water, Fire)
Since Precon Decks will be available for purchase via the Backerkit process, it is unclear at the time of this writing what the population number will be.
11 - Box Topper (Population: # of Boxes Purchased = 29,000)
This number will be known after the Kickstarter Campaign concludes.
Population Size & Pull Rate Data Analysis*
*Credit to community member and professional Data Analyst, Ryan Hutson, for performing the statistical analysis discussed below.
29,000 Total Boxes per announcement from the Erik's Curiosa team
Rarity distribution is not 100% confirmed. Numbers shown reflect current statements by the company, with the caveat that these can change as play-testing and set balance refinement efforts continue.
Emphasized here is the assumption of random probabilistic distribution. It is critical to note that mapped printing is common in the industry, and this could significant negate the analysis results shown here. It would bias these number significantly toward overstated rarity. As such, it is probably prudent to assume this as an extreme scenario, with actual pull rates some degree (potentially significantly) better than this and thus improving the odds of hitting foils and acquiring a set. That said, acquiring a master set is likely not practical nor affordable via opening packs, and buy/sell/trade will likely be required.